A version of this story appeared in the November 19 edition of CNN's Coronavirus: Fact vs. Fiction newsletter. Sign up here to receive the need-to-know headlines every weekday.
Health experts say that if the nation doesn't adopt a more coordinated strategy, and Americans don't get more serious about wearing masks and avoiding careless socializing, the rate of deaths will keep soaring this fall and winter.
But there is some hope. Surging cases across the country have expedited trials of vaccines that could curtail the pandemic. Now two drugmakers, Pfizer and Moderna, have announced their vaccine candidates appear to be around 95% effective in preventing infection, a result that has stunned health officials.
After clearing a final safety milestone this week, Pfizer and its partner, German company BioNTech, said they will seek US Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorization of their vaccine on Friday, with distribution possibly beginning as early as the end of the year. Other drugmakers are expected to follow hot on their heels.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, America's top infectious disease expert, has called the breakthroughs a "light at the end of the tunnel" for people who are struggling with Covid fatigue and worn out by public health measures. "Help is coming ... hang in there a bit longer," Fauci said.
YOU ASKED. WE ANSWERED
Q: How risky is flying during the pandemic?
A: In May, Erin Bromage, a comparative immunologist and professor of biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, wrote a blog post viewed millions of times that defined the likelihood of catching the virus with this equation: "Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time." Apply that to air travel and it follows that shorter flights will expose you to less virus, thus reducing your risk.
"The rare cases where we have seen transmission on airplanes it's on the long flights, the ones that are five hours or more, like nine hours, 14 hours," said Linsey Marr, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech who is a leading expert in aerosol transmission of viruses.
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WHAT'S IMPORTANT TODAY
AstraZeneca vaccine could build immunity in older people
In the latest good news about coronavirus vaccines, the AstraZeneca candidate appears to be safe and produce a strong immune response in older adults, according to Phase 2 trial data published in the Lancet. The vaccine, developed by AstraZeneca in partnership with the University of Oxford, is in late-stage, Phase 3 clinical trials around the world. Its makers are expected to release data on efficacy in the coming weeks.
AstraZeneca is the third drugmaker to post promising results in the last two weeks, buoying hopes that the world will get a vaccine soon. Dr. Fauci said the US may see a "graded rollout" of vaccines in the coming months, with Pfizer and Moderna delivering doses in late December 2020 into January 2021, followed by AstraZeneca and Janssen potentially in January or February.
As drugmakers get closer to green-lighting a safe and effective Covid-19 vaccine, public health officials are beginning to get a clearer picture of when we might return to some semblance of normality. If people take the vaccine, Fauci said the country could get back to "relative normal" in "the second and third quarter" of 2021. BioNTech's CEO has described a similar timeline. "I am confident that if everything goes well, and we have a very organized vaccine supply, that we could have a normal summer and winter 2021," Ugur Sahin told CNN during an exclusive interview on Wednesday.
Immunity to Covid-19 may last years, study suggests
Immunity to the coronavirus could be powerful and lasting, persisting for years and possibly much longer, according to a new study -- one of the most promising signs that widespread vaccination could help to end the pandemic.
Six to eight months post-infection, most people who had recovered still had enough "immune memory" to fight off the coronavirus and prevent illness, according to the new research.
The study, posted online, has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a scientific journal, but it is the most long-ranging investigation into immune memory to the coronavirus so far -- and the most hopeful. It adds to the body of research on immunity to the novel coronavirus. Several studies have focused on antibodies, or protein components of the immune system, and some suggested immunity could wane over just a few months.
The crisis in the US 'will get worse' before it gets better
An end to the pandemic may now be in sight with more good news on vaccines, but coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths are still rising across the US, and Adm. Brett Giroir, assistant secretary for health at the Department of Health and Human Services, told CNN Wednesday that the crisis is going nowhere. "This will get worse," he said.
New York City, once the epicenter of the coronavirus in America, will close down its public school system again this week -- a major setback and a worrying sign that a second wave has hit. In Massachusetts, infection numbers are eight times what they were on Labor Day and hospitalizations have quadrupled. Meanwhile, in Oklahoma, only 6% of ICU beds remain available. In Arkansas, the governor has warned that more than 1,000 people could lose their lives in the next five weeks. And in Illinois, the virus is now the third leading cause of death behind heart disease and cancer.
While most health officials agree face coverings help to prevent the spread of Covid-19, state and local governments have varied widely on implementation of mask rules -- and President-elect Joe Biden wants to change that. Most states have some type of mask mandate, but these still don't: Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee and Wyoming.
ON OUR RADAR
- India's capital Delhi has reported its highest Covid-19 daily death toll as cases pass half a million.
- Tokyo is raising its virus alert to the highest level as infections surge to their highest peak.
- No new cases have been reported in South Australia on the first day of "circuit-breaker" lockdown.
- The US military has reported a record high number of Covid-19 cases, as several bases once again tighten health measures.
- Police in Berlin used water cannon and pepper spray to break up large crowds demonstrating against a new legal framework for enforcing coronavirus restrictions.
The idea of isolating for a stretch of two weeks either because you've been exposed to Covid-19 or are traveling from a Covid-19 hotspot, can feel like a punishment -- but it doesn't have to. Dr. Rachelle Scott, director of psychiatry at Eden Health, a primary care company in New York City, suggests reframing the experience by shifting your perspective.
"Instead of being angry that you have to quarantine, focus on all that you're doing to keep your community healthy by simply staying home," she said.
Scott also suggests leaning into the experience by seeing the positives -- studies have shown that gratitude helps you shift your focus and lift your mood.
TODAY'S PODCAST
"They [the FDA] have raised the bar for Covid vaccines. They have made very clear that there can't be any shortcuts with respect to the level of efficacy that would merit an EUA [Emergency Use Authorization]." -- Jason Schwartz, Yale public health professor
What is an Emergency Use Authorization, and why is it making headlines? CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta talks to the Yale School of Public Health's Jason Schwartz about this important step in the vaccine process. Listen Now.
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