Thursday could be an important tipping point in how we talk about the presidential race. That said, it could be some time before there is a definitive conclusion.
If you had to choose, you would definitely bet on Democrat Joe Biden right now. He could be hours from being the presumptive winner with a call soon on a state that could go his way.
But there are presumptions in that statement, mainly that Arizona holds for Biden — and overnight we saw Biden’s lead there shrink considerably.
What we know
• There are five states where a winner hasn’t been determined in the presidential race: Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska. Alaska will take a while, but looks to be an easy win for Trump.
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• Trump can still win a second term. But to do so he has to run the table in all the states in question right now and that seems unlikely. Biden only has to win one or maybe two states remaining.
• Nevada officials say they will release more results at noon Eastern time. It is expected that a winner of the state will be declared after that.
• Trump’s campaign filed lawsuits on Wednesday to halt vote counting in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia. So far, these lawsuits haven’t had any impact except to get news coverage.
• We are almost certain to head for recounts in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. It’s possible that Nevada and Arizona could be added to that list as well.
What we don’t know
• Who the next president will be.
• Which party will control the Senate. One still has to assume that it will be the Republicans, but results overnight now suggest that both of Georgia’s US Senate races will head to January run-offs as it is looking like no candidate will get to 50 percent. As it stands, the Senate is projected to be 48 to 48, with four races uncalled. Republicans will likely win the Alaska seat and they still have a slim lead in North Carolina, giving them a 50 to 48 lead overall. But if Biden wins the presidency and Democrats eke out 50 seats in the chamber, that won’t be enough for Republicans.
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• There remains a lot of confusion about Arizona. Both Fox News and the Associated Press called the state for Biden on election night and they have held firm about it. But there have been a lot of results released since then and Biden’s once 5 percentage point lead is now down to 1.5 percentage points with results still coming in.
What to watch next
• Joe Biden could be the presumptive president-elect around high noon eastern time. That is when Nevada will report more results. Biden already is leading there and he just needs to hold on. The Associated Press count, which includes Arizona going in Biden’s favor, puts Biden with 264 electoral votes. If Nevada’s is called for Biden, then he adds that state’s six electoral votes — and suddenly he has an argument that he has the necessary 270 electoral votes to be the next president.
• The vote in Pennsylvania. The mail-in ballots are coming in fast from the Keystone State and they are moving the state dramatically in Biden’s favor. Last night, Biden trailed Trump there by 700,000. This morning, that gap narrowed to 164,000.
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• There are two important questions for Thursday: First, will Biden be seen as getting over the 270 mark before all the recounts and lawsuits are dispatched with? Second, will Biden only get over 270 with the help of one state or more states? If it is just one state, then Republicans may be fine with Trump fully litigating and recounting that single state as much as he wants. It if is multiple states, then maybe not.
James Pindell can be reached at james.pindell@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell.
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November 05, 2020 at 07:47PM
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Thursday a.m. update: What we know, what we don’t know, and what to watch next - The Boston Globe
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