The GOP’s electoral fate now depends entirely on how Youngkin navigates the tricky balance between mobilizing a party base intensely loyal to former president Donald Trump and holding down his likely losses among Virginia’s moderate, blue-leaning urban and suburban voters.
As chief executive of the Carlyle Group private equity firm, Youngkin amassed a nine-figure fortune, but in elective politics, he’s a blank canvas. Now, he’s racing against the Democrats to see who most effectively paints the canvas and how prominent Trump figures in the picture.
For a novice, Youngkin showed political moxie in his nomination battle, mostly keeping the messaging his campaign controlled upbeat. He presented himself as an outsider: a hard-working, self-made businessman who attended college on a basketball scholarship. His message was largely old-school Republican — pro-business, pro-gun, antiabortion and anti-big-government — although he pandered to baseless GOP grievances over unproven wholesale election fraud.
His most delicate dance, however, is with the legacy of Trump and a GOP voting base militantly loyal to him.
Perhaps his most challenging minuet is behind him. In the run-up to the GOP’s “un-assembled” May 8 convention, Youngkin guardedly embraced Trump. It was not the full-throated devotion expressed by the rival campaign of state Sen. Amanda F. Chase (Chesterfield), who called herself “Trump in heels.” But it was not so standoffish as to alienate Trump or his followers and cost him the nomination.
Promptly after the convention votes were tallied and Youngkin emerged as the GOP’s standard-bearer, he was rewarded with Trump’s unequivocal endorsement. Democrats pounced, saying it proves Youngkin to be just another Trump acolyte.
But within days, Youngkin executed a nuanced turn toward the political center. Though he acknowledged Trump’s blessing and said he was honored by it, he positioned it as evidence of GOP unity. Also, in separate interviews with The Post and Fox Business, he broke with Trump and many in the GOP who contend that President Biden’s election was illegitimate, which Youngkin avoided as he romanced committed GOP convention delegates.
Now that he’s gotten Trump’s imprimatur, Youngkin is free to continue tacking back toward the middle of the road, stressing his pro-jobs, pro-business themes in an electoral environment that could benefit him.
Democrats have held the Executive Mansion for nearly 16 of the past 20 years. They gained full control of Virginia government two years ago by winning House and Senate majorities for the first time in a generation. Combine that with a new Democratic president and Democratic control of Congress, and Youngkin has reason to think that Virginia might be ripe to flip this fall.
Only once since 1973 has Virginia elected a governor of the same party as the president. That was in 2013 when Democrat Terry McAuliffe narrowly defeated Republican Ken Cuccinelli II. McAuliffe appears to hold the upper hand in the June 8 Democratic Primary in his bid to buck the trend again and become the first governor since Mills Godwin in 1973 to win a second, nonconsecutive gubernatorial term.
Virginia, which elects governors the year after presidential races, will be a proving ground for the first contest after Trump’s presidency. Democrats will do all they can to shackle Youngkin and the rest of the GOP ticket to Trump and the most distasteful memories Virginians have of him: coronavirus denialism, the 2017 Charlottesville violence and his cozy relationship with white nationalists, the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection attempt and his continued false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.
The Virginia GOP this year adopted the unusual ranked-choice voting process that required a 50 percent-plus majority to win and undercut the chances of any extremist candidate emerging as the gubernatorial nominee.
That convention decision just may have given Virginia Republicans a fighting chance.
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