Once new coach David Culley has his staff in place, they can turn their attention to the rebuild the Texans need after finishing last season with a 4-12 record that left them as one of the worst teams in the NFL.
New general manager Nick Caserio has final say on all personnel decisions. He and Culley have to work 24/7 because they have to slice and dice a roster that desperately needs an overhaul.
Because quarterback Deshaun Watson’s trade request won’t be granted anytime soon, if at all, we’ll put aside his situation when analyzing what Culley and his assistants, including offensive coordinator Tim Kelly and new defensive coordinator Lovie Smith, will need to do as the Texans approach free agency in mid-March and the draft in late April.
First, some good news.
The Texans’ salary cap problem may not be as bad as everyone originally thought. Recent reports have the cap increasing from the $175 million floor to at least $180 million and possibly as high as $185 million.
Spotrac.com projects the Texans at $7.1 million over a projected $185 million cap. If they trade or release defensive end J.J. Watt, as expected, they’d clear his $17.5 million base salary.
Caserio will have more difficult decisions to make involving the salary cap, including releasing or trading players to free up cap dollars or taking on dead cap money as he retools the roster.
Caserio spent the last 20 years at New England, where coach Bill Belichick called all the shots. If Caserio operates the way the Patriots do, he’ll make some unpopular moves with veteran players to acquire more draft choices.
The Texans have eight picks, and their first- and second-round selections belong to Miami to complete Bill O’Brien’s trade for left tackle Laremy Tunsil and receiver Kenny Stills.
If the Texans eventually back off their hardline stance and trade Watson, they’ll become one of the most intriguing teams in the draft as they jockey to select a new quarterback. Waiting until the third round to make their first pick makes them an afterthought.
Caserio and Culley have to do something about the slow starts on both sides of the ball that consistently put the Texans in a hole and forced them into a come-from-behind mode. The Texans scored 60 points in the first quarter. Only five teams scored fewer points. They allowed 103. Three teams surrendered more.
Caserio, Culley and Kelly don’t need to watch a lot of tape to recognize the problems on offense. They finished 13th (375.3 yards), including 31st in rushing (91.6 yards) and fourth in passing (283.6).
They have to fix the running game, and it starts with a back and a right guard to replace David Johnson and Zach Fulton. Johnson, who missed four games, rushed for 691 yards, 23rd in the league. Of the backs who finished ahead of him, 12 were acquired with picks after the first two rounds or had been signed as undrafted free agents.
In 2020, the Texans were the second-worst running team in franchise history to the inaugural 2002 team. They also ran only 344 times, fewest in franchise history.
An improved running game begins with the offensive line. It’s imperative the linemen play better than last season as run blockers and pass protectors. That’s got to be a priority for Culley and his offensive staff.
Caserio has to make sure to re-sign receiver Will Fuller. He was suspended for the last five games and the first game of next season for violating the NFL’s policy on performance enhancing drugs. If they can’t agree on a contract with him, Fuller must be franchised.
Fuller had the best season of his career, despite the suspension, finishing with 53 catches, 879 yards (16.6 average) and eight touchdowns.
Watson or a new quarterback would be set with Fuller and Brandin Cooks (81 catches, 1,150 yards, 14.2 average, six touchdowns) on the outside and Keke Coutee on the inside.
When he got an opportunity over the last part of the season, Coutee proved he can be a productive receiver, finishing with 33 catches for 400 yards (12.1 average) and three touchdowns.
Just to remind you of why the Texans are adamant about not trading Watson, he overcame the lack of a productive running game and the losses of Fuller and Randall Cobb (six games missed). Watson established career bests with 4,823 yards passing, a 70.2 percent completion percentage, an 8.87 average yards per attempt, 33 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 112.4 rating.
OK, on to the defense.
Smith, who was fired as Illinois’ coach, went to the Super Bowl as Chicago’s head coach and as St. Louis’ defensive coordinator. He’s a Tony Dungy disciple. Smith played the Tampa 2 that Dungy perfected with the Buccaneers, where Smith coached linebackers until moving to the Rams as defensive coordinator.
The Texans haven’t used a base 4-3 scheme since 2010, the year before Wade Phillips arrived as defensive coordinator under Gary Kubiak. Last season, defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver started a four-man front in seven games to try to improve the run defense, which didn’t work.
Smith and the defensive coaches have to make drastic improvement against the run. The Texans finished 30th in defense (416.8 yards), including 32nd (160.3) against the run and 24th (256.5) against the pass.
The run defense was wretched, of course, but the most depressing statistic of all was the lack of takeaways. The Texans forced only nine turnovers, fewest in the league. They intercepted three passes, also the fewest. Only six teams recovered fewer fumbles than the Texans’ six.
One reason the Texans didn’t force more turnovers is because of an anemic pass rush. Watt, the team’s best defensive player, produced a team-high five sacks, and he didn’t have much help.
Without consistent pressure on the quarterback, most of whom got rid of the ball quickly, the Texans were unable to create more turnovers. Dating back to 1980, the only team with fewer takeaways was the 2018 49ers with seven.
It goes without saying Caserio, Culley, the coaches and personnel department have their work cut out as the organization undergoes changes under the new regime. The Texans’ exasperated fans better hope it’s the dawn of a new era and not the dawn of another error.
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